What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Jacksonville (JAX) · issued Saturday, October 24 at 12:13 PM EDT.
Revised in 15 passages since the 6:30 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards. Coastal Flood Warning - Moderate to Potentially Major Tidal and Coastal Flooding around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the St. Johns River Basin. Wind Advisory for the Atlantic Coastal Counties this Afternoon & Tonight. Windy Conditions Continue at Coastal Locations on Sunday and Monday. Gale Warning for the Atlantic Waters Saturday Afternoon through Monday. High Surf Advisory & High Risk for Rip Currents through most of Next Week. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through most of Next Week. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL this Afternoon through this evening
Short Term
Moderate Coastal/Tidal Flooding Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River
Wind Advisory Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River gusts to 45 mph
Locally heavy rainfall at times NE FL Atlantic Coast/I-95
The local pressure gradient continues to tighten this afternoon as strong high pressure centered over New England wedges down the eastern seaboard and an area of low pressure develops northeast of the Bahamas. This will develop and sharpen coastal troughing over the nearshore Atlantic waters bringing gusty north-northeasterly winds. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon into evening where gusts could reach up to 40-45 mph along the SE GA and NE FL coasts. Breezy conditions linger overnight with the continued tight pressure gradient. Waves of numerous coastal showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will shift onshore through the evening hours mainly for coastal NE FL and then into the St Johns River basin. A few convergent bands may form along the northeast FL coast bringing heavier downpours and localized flooding. If these bands coincide with this evening's high tide cycle, this could exacerbate the already significant tidal flooding expected. Shower activity wanes overnight and shifts to the NE FL coastal areas, mainly south of St. Augustine. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in SE GA to the upper 60s along the NE FL coast.
Short Term
Coastal and Marine Hazards Peak on Sunday and Monday, with Coastal Flood Warnings in Effect Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate to Possibly Major Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide.
Wind Advisory Conditions Likely to Continue at Coastal Locations.
Gale Warnings Continue for the Atlantic Waters.
Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf Advisories and a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents at All Area Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach Erosion.
Locally Heavy Downpours Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night.
An initially tight pressure gradient situated over the forecast area, between high pressure ridging to the north and a sharp coastal trough to the east and southeast, will act to keep wind speeds of 25 to 30 mph on Sunday, with wind gusts potentially increasing up to 35 to 45 mph on Monday. Rain showers are expected to develop over the region with the onshore flow, with a possibility for heavier downpours capable of causing localized flooding, more likely over northeast Florida with chances dropping by the end of the day on Monday as drier air from out of the north advects southward. High temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week will be in the mid to upper 70s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s for areas along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the 40s and 50s for southeast Georgia and in the 60s for northeast Florida, with min temperatures as high as the upper 60s and lower 70s along the shoreline.
Long Term
Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal Flooding Likely Around Times of High Tide on Tuesday Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns River Basin. Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding May Continue for Much of the Upcoming Week Within the St. Johns River Basin.
Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches throughout the Upcoming Week.
Northeasterly flow will persist through the week into Friday which, along with coastal troughing and astronomical high tides, will result in a continuance of coastal and marine impacts through the week. Drier air over the region will reduce the amount of precipitation for the beginning of the period with chances for showers increasing later in the week as more moist air advects in over the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to rise to be near or slightly above the seasonal average by the end of the week.
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