Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 9 passages since the 1:30 PM discussion. See every revision.
There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in northern Graham and Greenlee counties today. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected areawide through Wednesday. High temperatures will be below normal this weekend, warming to near to slightly above normal early to mid next week, before lowering back below normal late next week.
Clear skies were across most of southeast Arizona early this morning, with just a few lower clouds noted northwest of Tucson and in eastern Cochise County. Dewpoints were in the lower to mid 40s and satellite layer blended PW values were in the 0.30-0.45 inch range from Tucson eastward and between 0.50-0.60 inches over central/western Pima County.
An upper low over far southeastern California will move into into western Arizona early this morning and then track northeast across the state into southern Utah late tonight. This system was currently generating scattered showers over portions of southern California and the northern Baja Peninsula, with PW values near 0.75 inches in those areas. As this system tracks northeast across the state today, there may be just enough moisture combined with ascent into the higher terrain of northern Graham and Greenlee counties for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. However, most of the forecast area will remain dry today, although I would not be surprised to see a few light showers develop near the upper low's core especially during peak daytime heating just to the north of our forecast area.
Behind the upper low, shortwave ridging and southwest flow aloft will prevail Monday through Wednesday of next week, as a series of upper lows move into the Pacific Northwest. This will result in dry and warmer conditions areawide across southeast Arizona.
During the latter half of next week the deterministic the American global model/the European model and ensembles are coming in consensus with west coast troughing and a more active southern stream of moisture moving into the west coast. There are still plenty of timing differences this far out. The current forecast has high temperatures lowering below normal by the end of next week, as well as a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and then a chance of showers/thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.
Overall, high temperatures will be 2-5 degrees below normal through Sunday, near to slightly above normal next Monday through Thursday, lowering to 4-8 degrees below normal at the end of next week into the following weekend.
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub