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Revised in 3 passages since the 12:36 PM discussion. See every revision.
Moderate monsoon activity will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as high pressure builds over Arizona, hot weather and a decline in storm activity is expected to develop as the flow of moisture northward into the region diminishes.
Upper-air analysis shows the 500mb subtropical high pressure cell centered across central New Mexico, with a northeastward-moving shortwave trough draped across the Yavapai and Coconino County border. This system is actively supporting showers and thunderstorms across western Yavapai and Coconino Counties, while aiding convective initiation along portions of the Mogollon Rim.
Moderate monsoon conditions persist today with storms drifting northeastward on average. The forecast favors high-terrain locations, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms between 30-60% in the mountains. However, mid-level warming is limiting deep atmospheric instability, keeping the threat for severe weather low. Given the presence of slow-moving storms, there is a low to medium risk for flash flooding. This threat is tempered by atmospheric moisture (precipitable water) values ranging from 0.75-0.85 inches north of the Mogollon Rim and 0.85-1.15 inches south of the Rim. Outflow wind gusts between 35-45 mph are possible in the vicinity of storms.
Storm activity is forecast to decline after sunset. High- resolution model guidance indicates overnight showers and thunderstorms may move into the region from the south, impacting areas west of a Payson to Flagstaff to Page line. Similar convective coverage is forecast on Monday, though a surge of moisture northward from the Gulf of California will likely shift the main axis of high storm coverage into Coconino and Yavapai Counties, with more isolated activity expected elsewhere.
By mid-to-late week, guidance generally agrees that the subtropical high pressure circulation will strengthen over Arizona. This will introduce more stable atmospheric conditions and a noticeable downturn in storm coverage, leaving only low- grade monsoon activity through the remainder of the week. Temperatures are forecast to warm during this period, with daytime temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal across much of the area. Excessive Heat products may become necessary for lower elevation areas, including portions of Yavapai County and Grand Canyon country.
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