Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 13 passages since the 8:01 PM discussion. See every revision.
Cool overnight lows are bringing frost conditions into the Umpqua Valley.
A weak upper ridge will bring warmer temperatures today, with dry overnight flow over area peaks and ridgelines into early Sunday morning.
A low pressure system looks to bring west side rainfall late Sunday and through the day Monday.
Additional active weather may be present through the week, although signals for hazardous conditions are not currently present in guidance.
Cool temperatures under clear skies or the barest scraps of high clouds are present early this morning. Temperatures at the Roseburg Regional Airport are already near frost conditions with a few more hours of cooling left, supporting the present Frost Advisory. As the sun rises, stable conditions under a somewhat weak upper ridge will nevertheless push daytime highs just over seasonal norms for northern California. Broadly speaking, this will put west side areas in the mid to high 60s while highs farther east are forecast to be in the high 50s to low 60s. Beyond some warming, the weather today and early Sunday looks to be mild. One noteworthy condition is that for later tonight into early Sunday morning, airflow over area peaks and ridgelines may be especially dry. While "fire season" may not be at the front of mind, sparks from a campfire can still still ignite a larger fire and these dry flows can allow that fire to grow rapidly. For anyone planning outdoor activities as fall settles in, these conditions are worth noting.
Confidence is growing that a low pressure system will approach the area later in the day on Sunday. Depending on the timing of its approach, cloud cover may help to keep Sunday's temperatures a little lower. Coastal areas may start to see showers by Sunday evening while other west side areas may see light showers through Monday. Some stray showers could get over the Cascades as well. This system also looks to bring gusty winds to east side areas and over west side terrain. These gusts could reach around 25 to 30 mph, which is well short of Advisory speeds.
Beyond Monday's low pressure system, model guidance is trending towards another round of precipitation towards the end of the week. This would be from another low pressure system, which looks very similar to the Sunday-Monday system. If this pattern comes to pass, cool temperatures would be present for much of the week ahead. While some localized low visibilities may be present under passing showers, overall these systems do not present any signals for hazardous conditions for the forecast period. -TAD
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub