What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Jacksonville, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Jacksonville (JAX) · issued Saturday, October 24 at 12:13 PM EDT.
Messages
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards. Coastal Flood Warning - Moderate to Potentially Major Tidal and Coastal Flooding around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the St. Johns River Basin. Wind Advisory for the Atlantic Coastal Counties this Afternoon & Tonight. Windy Conditions Continue at Coastal Locations on Sunday and Monday. Gale Warning for the Atlantic Waters Saturday Afternoon through Monday. High Surf Advisory & High Risk for Rip Currents through most of Next Week. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through most of Next Week. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL this Afternoon through this evening
Short Term
Moderate Coastal/Tidal Flooding Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River
Wind Advisory Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River gusts to 45 mph
Locally heavy rainfall at times NE FL Atlantic Coast/I-95
The local pressure gradient continues to tighten this afternoon as strong high pressure centered over New England wedges down the eastern seaboard and an area of low pressure develops northeast of the Bahamas. This will develop and sharpen coastal troughing over the nearshore Atlantic waters bringing gusty north-northeasterly winds. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon into evening where gusts could reach up to 40-45 mph along the SE GA and NE FL coasts. Breezy conditions linger overnight with the continued tight pressure gradient. Waves of numerous coastal showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will shift onshore through the evening hours mainly for coastal NE FL and then into the St Johns River basin. A few convergent bands may form along the northeast FL coast bringing heavier downpours and localized flooding. If these bands coincide with this evening's high tide cycle, this could exacerbate the already significant tidal flooding expected. Shower activity wanes overnight and shifts to the NE FL coastal areas, mainly south of St. Augustine. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in SE GA to the upper 60s along the NE FL coast.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Jacksonville discussion at /o/JAX/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.