Little Rock (LZK) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

Messages

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will persist through this weekend and into next week.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the forecast period with drought conditions persisting.

-Low afternoon relative humidity values and drying fuels will contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through the weekend.

-Low confidence exists for some rain chances to return Halloween weekend.

Discussion

Persistence forecast pattern will continue across the region through the week ahead as upper ridging and asctd surface high pressure settle acrs the central US. Expect near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures to prevail over AR, w/ an intermittent period of cooler temperatures to start the new work week, and a warming trend resuming by mid-week. through most of the current forecast PD, no appreciable rainfall is expected, though we continue to monitor possible rain chances by next weekend into early November.

Daily fire concerns will persist, fostered by antecedent drought conditions, a lack of forecast rainfall, and drying ground fuels (noted by forecast ERC values >90th percentile over portions of southern AR).

Concerning the Halloween weekend forecast, there are still considerable differences amongst global guidance solns, particularly w/ the evolution of the upper level pattern. Latest the American global model guidance favors more organized SWrly H500 flow over the southern Plains by next Fri into Sat, w/ numerous shortwaves ejecting acrs the Ozark Plateau. More substantial low-lvl moisture would result as well, yielding higher chance chance of rain and asctd expected rainfall over much of the state fm Sat night into Sun.

On the other end, the European model guidance continues to suggest lesser to no precipitation chances for the area late next week, as more organized and amplified H500 flow stays displaced to the NW acrs the northern to central Plains. Additionally, over the past few nights, a stronger cdfrnt that was previously progged to move through during Halloween weekend has lagged significantly to much lower confidence forecast ranges, lkly owing to significant differences and variability in upper level support.

Taking a look at ensemble clustering solns for late next weekend also offers a similar scenario dilemma, w/ the highest weighted solns including stronger H500 troughing displaced to the NW (lesser chance of rain and expected rainfall locally), or stronger and more organized SWrly flow over the southern Plains (higher chance of rain and expected rainfall locally). Current ensemble mean guidance is also not overly optimistic, w/ 24 hour mean expected rainfall ranging fm one quarter inch to near one inch through next Sat to Sun, and probabilistic exceedance of one inch less than 20 percent. Wl continue to monitor for some much needed rain in the extended term as model guidance reaches a consensus.