Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 3 passages since the 12:37 AM discussion. See every revision.
Focus for heavier rainfall shifts to the eastern plains today and Sunday.
Some accumulation snow possible across the higher peaks this afternoon through Sunday morning.
Cooler and wetter weather areawide this weekend, with gradual warming and drying for the upcoming week.
Currently. Upper low is centered over southern CA late tonight, producing deep south-southwest flow across the region and drawing a healthy moisture plume up across New Mexico into southern CO. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing across the southern mts and SE corner of the state through the overnight hours. Decided to drop the Flood Watch across the sw mts overnight since flood warnings are ongoing, but flood waters are gradually decreasing and additional warnings are not anticipated at this time. temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s for the high valleys and upper 40s to mid 50s for the plains by daybreak.
Today and tonight. Upper low will push into AZ through the day today, continuing the S-SW feed of moisture up into southern CO. Meanwhile, a cold front is forecast to drop south across the eastern plains through the morning, bringing much colder air to the forecast area with as much as a 20 degree drop in high temperatures across the plains. The upper low will gradually shift north to the northern AZ border through the evening. This positioning will be prime for continued precipitation across the forecast area through the day and night, though the heaviest rainfall amounts are expected to be across the far eastern plains. Though rain is still forecast along the Continental Divide today, especially in the afternoon, expected rainfall amounts are coming in around half an inch over 24 hrs which should not force any additional flooding threats. Also, snow levels are dropping with new snow amounts of 5 to 8 inches possible across the mt peaks through the evening, so new snow means less of a runoff threat. Further east, heavier qpf amounts are expected, though totals have come down quite a bit from previous thinking. Latest totals are now ranging from 1 to almost 2 inches of additional rain through the day, which lessens the flooding threat and becomes more of a beneficial rain. WPC has painted much of the forecast area within a Slight area for excessive rainfall, and SPC has included portions of the eastern plains within a Marginal for severe storms, and the rest of the area in General Thunder. Plenty of shear available, but storm energy values are somewhat lacking, but the combination of a surface front and stronger S-southwest flow aloft could make it sporty for a bit across the eastern plains. Main storm threats today will be gusty winds to 60 mph, hail nearing 1 inch in diameter, and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Look for highs today in the mid 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to lower 60s for the plains. Overnight minimum temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s for the high valleys, and 30s to lower 40s for the plains.
Sunday. Upper low pushes up into east central UT through the day Sunday, then weakens slightly and slides east into CO through the evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across the forecast area through the afternoon, but the steering flow shifts from a S-SW direction to a more W-SW direction through late afternoon, keeping much of the stronger activity and highest expected rainfall amounts right along the eastern border. The mt peaks may see an additional 1-2 inches of new snow, though snowfall is expected to really drop off. This should be the coolest day of the forecast period, with highs in the 50s for most locations, and nearing 60F for the far eastern plains.
Monday. Upper low weakens, opens and exits to the northeast through the day, with just some lingering isolated to low end scattered showers across the far eastern plains through the morning. temperatures start to warm back up to near seasonal levels, with highs in the 50s to near 60F for the high valleys, and 60s for the plains.
Tuesday through Friday. Broad southwest flow across the region will settle in for the remainder of the week. A disturbance brushes by to the north on Tuesday, producing some brisk winds, otherwise conditions remain dry and temperatures remain seasonal as the Pacific moisture tap is temporarily shut down and moisture from the Gulf starts creeping northward towards the TX and OK panhandles. Moore
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub