What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service New Orleans (LIX) · issued Saturday, October 24 at 5:46 AM CDT.
Revised in 2 passages since the 12:33 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Elevated fire danger will remain in place through the weekend. The current and worsening drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity will lead to potential for rapid fire growth. Winds will strengthen a bit over the weekend leading to increasing concern. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.
Strengthening winds across the coastal waters will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft through the weekend across all open Gulf waters of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, as well the sounds and lakes east of the Mississippi River.
Short Term
(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Upper ridge extends from east Texas to the Great Lakes, with troughs over Florida and near Las Vegas. At the surface, high pressure centered over New England extended southwest to the northern Gulf Coast. Clear skies across the area at midnight with temperatures in the 60s along the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, and mainly in the 50s elsewhere.
The upper ridge is going to shift only slightly eastward over the next few days, being centered south of Mobile on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will continue to control the weather across the eastern half of the country through Tuesday with northeast to east winds continuing. The surface pressure gradient will tighten a little over the next day or two, providing for somewhat stronger easterly winds, especially south of Interstate 10. For fire weather concerns, see that section of the discussion below. the American global model soundings and precipitable water forecasts indicate that moisture levels should remain near or below the 25th percentile for late October (0.80 inches) through Tuesday and beyond. Other than possibly some cirrus clouds and a few cumulus clouds at times, expect abundant sunshine, warm daytime temperatures and cool nights through Tuesday. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s are about 5 degrees above normal, and overnight lows in the 50s for most areas are just above normal.
Long Term
(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Not a lot to say that hasn't already been said over the last several days. Dry high pressure will continue to dominate the area's weather through the work week. Even as the ridge axis meanders a bit in response to northern stream impulses riding up and over the ridge, it keeps a pretty strong hold on the southeast CONUS. Deep southerly flow will bring moisture into Texas and western portions of Louisiana, but the location of the surface high keeps our local flow more easterly than southerly.
With the persistent dry conditions, expect to see continued large daily temperature ranges with lows falling into upper 40s to mid 50s across northern areas and upper 50s to lower 60s in southern areas. Afternoon highs will generally warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s most places daily.
Next rain chance looks to be beyond the current forecast period, but could come next weekend or during the first part of the following week as another cold front moves into and through the area. Time will tell whether there is sufficient moisture return ahead of this front to result in wetting rains.
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