Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service New Orleans (LIX) · issued Sunday, August 23 at 12:46 PM CDT.
Revised in 9 passages since the 5:43 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 well into the new week. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. Those with outdoor plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Stay hydrated, wear light-weight and loose fitting clothes, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours today and Monday. A few storms could become strong to severe, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain. When thunder roars, go indoors.
Short Term
(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Tonight through Wednesday, upper level ridging will remain in place over the area to the west, and we will enter the "ring of fire" pattern. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the humidity across the region. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will be expected for the next few days, but especially tomorrow as a lingering weakness influences the area. These storms where they occur will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are not expected to be severe, based on recent model trends.
The heat continues as ridging builds back over the area. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s combined with heat index values in the 105-112 degrees range will be quite warm and uncomfortable. Given the uncertainties with cloud cover for Monday, we held off on issuing a heat advisory for now. It will be looked at again on the next forecast cycle. Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and advisories may be needed. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW
Long Term
(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
High pressure begins to break down over the area for the rest of the workweek into next weekend. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Daily scattered showers or storms will be possible during peak heating hours as we return to a more normal summertime pattern. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will linger with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW
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