The National Desk — where the weather is today · Plaincast

Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over southwest AZ, and a pronounced shortwave trough in the southeast quadrant of the low over northern Mexico. This feature will rotate northeastward today across southern New Mexico and West TX, aiding in the development of strong/severe storms.

Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will occur through the day over central/northern NM in advance of the approaching upper trough. Relatively cool air aloft and pockets of daytime heating may result in sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few strong/severe storms capable of hail. This activity will spread northeastward into a progressively less favorable air mass for severe storms by early evening.

Farther south, more abundant sun/heating is expected with temperatures warming into the 80s over southern NM and the Trans Pecos region of TX. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is expected - mainly after 18z. Strengthening southeasterly low-level winds and favorable deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercell storm structures capable of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. Forecast hodographs also suggest sufficient low-level shear for a tornado or two if discrete storm mode can be maintained. It appears the main risk will weaken after 01z with the onset of nighttime cooling.