Subtle adjustments were made to the existing Marginal/Slight risk areas based on ongoing convective trends. Recent CAM/TLE guidance suggests that upscale growth of convection into one or more linear clusters may result in localized corridors of greater damaging/severe wind coverage across portions of northern Utah and central Montana. The evolution of this scenario remains somewhat uncertain, however, which precludes the addition of 30% wind probabilities at this time. See MCDs 2099, 2100, and 2101 for additional short-term details.

Recent mesoanalysis and observational data depict modestly elongated hodographs and effective shear around 35 knots in place across portions of the Coastal Carolinas. Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, this may allow for the occurrence of isolated, marginally severe hail with the most robust updraft cores. Thus, a targeted 5% hail probability area was included with this update, which is similarly supported by AI/ML guidance and recent CAM solutions.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments made based on the latest forecast and observational trends. See the discussion below for additional details.