Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 3 passages since the 11:53 AM discussion. See every revision.
Monsoonal moisture in place will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast today.
Heavier rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain.
Temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal are expected through early next week, followed by a gradual warmup to close to 10 degrees above normal.
Shortwave troughing working across the northern Rockies this afternoon is providing some lift to the monsoonal moisture in place across the region. Convection thus far, has been richest across the San Juans where a concentration of showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning. This activity is expected to continue through the afternoon. Some rain is making its way to the surface, but rainfall remains sporadic. Some heavier showers could pose flash flooding issues this afternoon, as afternoon heating amplifies storms. Shortwave energy will continue to drag across the region into the evening hours, likely keeping a few isolated showers going into the overnight. Showers will lose much of their stamina after sunset, so expecting for more stratiform shower activity during the late evening to overnight hours, winding down before daybreak. While moisture takes a slight downturn on Monday, there will still be ample fuel for another afternoon of mountain showers and thunderstorms. Once again, some showers could pose a threat for flash flooding near burn scars and sensitive slot canyons, arroyos, etc.
Above normal moisture sticks around Wednesday and beyond, as the high gradually shifts back into the Desert Southwest. Forcing will be somewhat lacking, with only the occasional shortwave rotating around the periphery of the high. This means that most afternoons will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, with occasional periods of focused convection coinciding with a passing wave. So long as surface levels remain saturated, heavy rain and flash flooding will remain concerns, particularly for burn scars, slot canyons, and flashy creeks/dry washes. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be daily threats. Temperatures will start around 5 degrees above normal, but will gradually warm through the week under the influence of the high. By the end of the coming workweek, look for highs to be 5-10 degrees above normal.
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