Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Albuquerque (ABQ) · issued Sunday, August 23 at 1:21 PM MDT.
Revised in 9 passages since the 11:54 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage today and Monday, then increase in coverage Tuesday through Thursday, with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads.
A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week with near-record high temperatures each day.
Short Term
(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Upper level high pressure remains squarely planted over NM with central 500 mb heights of about 597-598 decameters. This is keeping temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This orientation of the high has not offered any recent moisture intrusions to come into the state, but earlier monsoon moisture has been getting recycled with daily rounds of storms producing small, but mighty footprints. More stability has wrapped into the southeastern and south central areas of the forecast area, inhibiting storms there, and this has shoved the focus for convective initiation into the western and northern high terrain. The other feature of significance is a small perturbation riding in the weak westerly flow over CO which will spawn storms through the afternoon, and cold pools from these cells should eventually lead to a few more storms into northern NM through the evening. Any storms that make into northeastern NM could find localized shear enhancements near this cold pool, and could briefly turn strong to severe through the evening. Elsewhere outflows will keep low, but present, storm prospects in the northern and central valleys this evening with very low probabilities for airmass storms in the east central plains. Leftover cloud debris will then be slow to clear through the morning Monday.
Conditions on Monday will be similar with another small shortwave trough moving on the northern periphery of the high into CO, likely igniting additional storms that will sag into northern NM. A moist backdoor frontal boundary will also be seeping into northeastern NM, potentially aiding in convective initiation while also introducing more shear for additional strong cells. Instability will expand a bit southward, introducing low storm chances for the central to south central highlands and mountains along with a more southward extent of the eastern plains. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal with only a degree or two of "cooling" in the northeast while southeastern zones gain as much. This will push Roswell to 105, Heat Advisory criteria for the area, so after coordination with neighboring offices, this advisory statement will be issued with this forecast package for Monday.
Long Term
(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1211 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Upper level high pressure will move very little through the mid week period, only sagging a bit southwestward near the AZ-NM border with 500 mb heights remaining in a 596-598 decameter range. Temperatures will remain hot and above normal with backdoor frontal intrusions only offering a couple to a few degrees of cooling in northeastern to east central zones Tuesday and more-so on Wednesday. With the high positioning slightly southwestward, this will introduce more northwesterly flow aloft over the northeastern NM zones. This coupled with northerly or easterly surface winds, will raise bulk shear values and increase the severe threat while higher dewpoints, upslope, and surface convergence also contribute. Storm coverage may undergo a slight reduction over the southwestern mountains and Continental Divide Tuesday and Wednesday, but should regain potential into Thursday as the moist backdoor frontal air mass gets convectively aided and shoved farther west.
Into Friday, the high would remain close to the AZ-NM border with storms being reliant on daily heating and recycling of Thursday's moisture. By next weekend, the upper high looks to weaken and begin elongating west-to-east with drier air pivoting into NM from the northwest. The the American global model and GEFS ensemble mean hints at another shortwave dropping into northeastern NM which would generate additional storms, but European and Canadian solutions do not appear as favorable. Consequently, the forecast for next weekend leans on the drier side with temperatures running a few to several degrees above normal for all areas.
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