What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Albuquerque (ABQ) · issued Saturday, October 24 at 6:01 AM MDT.
Revised in 4 passages since the 2:36 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to return to the forecast area this afternoon and evening, when large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with a lower risk of isolated tornadoes.
River flooding will continue over parts of central and northwest New Mexico today and tonight.
Heavy rainfall will impact central and eastern parts of the forecast area today and tonight with a continued risk of flash flooding. The risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will persist east of the central mountain chain Sunday and Sunday night.
Short Term
(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 118 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026
The second upper level low pressure system in a series of two impacting the forecast area with widespread heavy rain has formed over southern CA. It will eject northeastward over the Four Corners and CO Sunday and Sunday night. This slow-moving storm system will again draw extremely rich subtropical moisture northward over the forecast area producing widespread showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern areas today and tonight with scattered to numerous activity westward to the AZ border. Sunday and Sunday night, the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms will shift over the eastern plains with scattered to numerous cells over central areas. Models depict a line of clearing that will advance northeastward across southwest and west-central areas Saturday night, but there is less certainty about how much eastward progress the dryslot will be able to make on Sunday. GEFS ensemble PWATS are forecast to peak around 160-250 percent of normal over central, northern, and eastern areas this afternoon through tonight, with values closer to normal farther southwest. precipitable water will then trend downward over central and western areas Sunday, while very high values persist across the plains. With actual precipitable water around 0.80-1.15", stronger storms along and east of the central mountain chain will again be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall at rates near and over 1"/hr today and tonight, then again east of the central mountain chain Sunday and Sunday night. Additional rain amounts today through Sunday night are progged to reach around 0.50-3.0" along and east of the central mountain chain with the heaviest amounts northeast, and mostly lighter amounts elsewhere. the blend-of-models forecast 90th Percentile expected rainfall, which indicates what a few of the higher rainfall totals will probably end up being, reaches 4-6" on the eastern plains, and 2-3" along the central mountain chain, over north central areas, and across the northwest mountains and northwest highlands. This upper-end scenario also indicates up to 1.5" of rain will be possible in parts of the Albuquerque area with higher amounts of 2-3" in the urban corridor north of Albuquerque to Taos. With this forecast package we will continue a Flash Flood Watch today through tonight from Navajo Lake eastward and southeastward to Capulin, Conchas, Fort Sumner, Roswell, and Ruidoso; including Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Later shifts will probably extend and expand the Watch over eastern areas for Sunday and Sunday evening.
A few inches of snow are also forecast on the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Saturday night through Sunday night, where 700 mb temperatures look to bottom out around +2 to +4 C. Otherwise, high temperatures across the forecast area will continue to trend cooler through the weekend, when readings should vary from a few to around 9 degrees below 30-year averages.
Long Term
(Monday through Friday) Issued at 118 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026
On Monday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over east central and southeast areas, where moist southeast low level return flow will develop as a weak trailing disturbance crosses aloft. precipitable water are forecast to trend downward, so the risk of additional flash flooding will be low. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather is forecast Monday through midweek as an active storm track north of NM draws dry west and southwest flow over the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms may increase in coverage again across the forecast area Thursday and Friday, depending on how much progress another upper level low pressure system can make advancing into the western US. At this time confidence is low in another widespread rain event over the forecast area, due to significant and persistent differences in model track and timing of the weather system.
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