What has changed

A very limited chance of a shower or storm across southeastern Sampson and Wayne counties this afternoon.

Messages

The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the Coastal Plain.

There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor.

Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday, maximized on Thursday.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1. The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the Coastal Plain.

The latest surface analysis shows the slow moving cold front now located across the eastern Coastal Plain with northwest winds across all of the area including at Fayetteville, Goldsboro and Clinton. Drier air has been filtering into the region thanks to a northwest or westerly flow in the low levels. The weather balloon data at KGSO this morning noted a PW of only 0.94 inches which is around the 18th percentile. The drier air combined with good mixing has allowed dew points to fall into the upper 50s at KINT, KGSO, KEXX, and KHNZ and the lower 60s across most of the remainder of the Piedmont. Further east and southeast across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills moisture lingers with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. This has resulted in a bit more cumulus clouds and perhaps a little vertical growth near and just behind the front from Maxton to just southeast of Fayetteville to just south of Goldsboro. Wouldn't be shocked if a rogue shower or storm develop near or east of this line through around 6pm but the coverage and intensity should be very limited and more favored to the east.

Generally fair weather is expected overnight with a northwest to westerly flow aloft, An approaching mid level disturbance may trigger a weak area of low pressure to develop in the Carolinas overnight on the front, or at least buckle the front and the moisture back west slightly. Some of the CAMs, primarily the the high-res rapid-refresh model suggest a rogue shower could develop late tonight across southern or southeastern areas, there is very little support for this in the other CAM guidance so will exclude any overnight chance of rain. There could be some patchy fog or low stratus across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain toward day break as well. Lows tonight should range in the lower 60s in the Triad and VA border counties, with mid 60s in the Triangle and southern Piedmont and the upper 60s in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Could see a few upper 50s in the typically colder spots such as Henderson and Sanford. These lows range from 1 to 4 degrees below average. Even more notable will be the dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s which will result in a much more pleasant morning for the first day of school in many locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor.

The cold front moving across central North Carolina today will become hung up along the Atlantic coastline tonight into Tuesday. The bulk of the convection that will occur Monday will be along the immediate coastline, but models have inched the western edge of the precipitation slightly farther to the west than they were yesterday. Other than around Fayetteville, it still appears that nearly all precipitation that occurs should remain east of I-95, and chances for storms are anywhere between 20-40%. The Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms along the coastline, just clipping the southern tip of Sampson County. Again, it is along the coastline where the greatest instability and wind shear will remain.

Key Message 3: Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday, maximized on Thursday.