Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Pueblo, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Pueblo (PUB) · issued Sunday, August 23 at 2:04 PM MDT.
Messages
Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected this evening, especially across the plains.
Showers and storms expected each day of the upcoming week, though with a downtick in activity for the later part of the week.
Flash flooding will be a concern for the first half of the week, especially across the Aspen Acres burn scar.
Short Term
Tonight: For Sunday night, active weather continues for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be remain in place just south of the area, with rich monsoon moisture streaming up and around this feature and into the area. This moisture tap, along with influence from vort maxes and shortwaves, will help showers and storms ongoing during the late afternoon to push across the plains through late evening to early overnight. While shear will be lackluster, a couple of strong storms will be possible given increased storm energy values. The strongest storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding, along with gusty outflow winds to around 55 mph from wet microburst/heavy water laden downdrafts. Along with that, given the moisture in place, showers may continue to fester across the higher terrain and valleys into the late evening. With that all said, showers and storms are expected to dissipate by the mid overnight hours, with dry conditions by tomorrow morning. Outside of all of that, with the pattern in place, winds are expected to remain light outside of storms, less than 10 mph, with pockets of clouds persisting through much of the evening and overnight hours. Looking at temperatures, another warm and above seasonal lows night is anticipated given the moisture and cloud cover. The plains will cool into the 60s, the valleys into the upper 40s to upper 50s, and the mountains into the low 40s to mid 50s.
Tomorrow: Heading into Monday, another similar day to the past couple is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The high pressure will continue to sit south of the area, and continue to stream deep moisture up and around and into the region. Again, with influences from vort maxes and shortwaves, another round afternoon showers and storms is anticipated, with initial development along the higher terrain, and increasing in coverage across the valleys and plains heading into mid to later afternoon. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong outflow winds to around 50-55 mph will be possible with any stronger storms. Beyond of all that, also similar to the past couple of days, winds will remain light, around 10 mph, outside of influences from storms, with clouds increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, another warm and above seasonal day is anticipated. The plains will warm into the 90s, the valleys into the 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s and upper 70s.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Pueblo discussion at /o/PUB/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.