Miami (MFL) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Miami (MFL) · issued Saturday, October 24 at 7:45 AM EDT.

Revised in 2 passages since the 3:21 AM discussion. See every revision.

Messages

Moderate coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle. Major coastal flooding is possible late this weekend into early next week.

Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is possible across the east coast metros Sunday through Monday.

Strong winds, with gusts over 35 mph are possible Sunday through Monday.

Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected through early next week.

Short Term

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

South Florida finds itself at the base of a positively tilted mid-level longwave trough. Water vapor imagery and upper air sounding observations from around the state indicate that deep layer dry air is currently in place across most of Florida, keeping conditions more dry and stable through the region. As the main trough axis swings across the state through tomorrow, unsettled weather will remain across the more unstable Gulf Stream waters. A few isolated showers may hug the Atlantic coastline during the day, but most activity will remain offshore. Deeper moisture remains further southeast over the Bahamas and closer to a stalled boundary near eastern Cuba, where a complex of thunderstorms is currently ongoing. However, here in South Florida, model soundings seem to indicate that moisture content will actually trend drier on Saturday. Precipitable water values will drop from a near average 1.6 inches, to a bottom tenth percentile of 0.8 to 0.9 inches. Models hint at the drier air reaching the surface this time, with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s through the middle of the day. As a result, chance of rain will be very low across most of South Florida, less than 10% for most areas. In addition to the dry air, subsidence aloft should keep any showers from being able to mature or develop. Coastal convergence may be possible, but there is very low confidence for rain amounts to be anything greater than half an inch through tomorrow afternoon.

Forecast confidence for the Saturday night through Sunday period has quite honestly decreased. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to struggle with a solution for the shortwave feature coming off of the Carolina coast. There is less agreement among guidance as to weather this feature develops into a closed mid-level low as it tracks southward along the Florida coastline, or whether it stays an open wave and join the overall longwave troughing pattern. Solutions also differ as to how fast and how far east and south this feature will move over the next two days. This has major implications on the amount of rainfall South Florida may get. A deeper, slower, and more westerly tracking system would increase chances of precipitation areawide. However, most model guidance has continued to trend lower with precipitation amounts. WPC expected rainfall ensemble clusters show that 1 to 1.5 inches through Monday would be the highest confidence scenario to play out. Yet, there is one cluster of solutions that shows a scenario of 3 to 4 inches possible (but this is a lower confidence scenario). Overall, better dynamics aloft and increased streams of vorticity across the region will favor greater shower and storm activity. chance of rain will climb into the 70% to 80% range over the eastern metro. Coastal convergence may allow for several storms to focus along the coastline for several hours, so a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall exits for minor urban flooding along low lying and poor drainage locations.

Breezy northeasterly winds will continue to strengthen through the weekend for all areas. Breezy winds may combine with high surf and unusually high tides over the weekend. This may result in moderate to potentially major tidal flooding for coastal areas along Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Remember to never drive, walk, or wade across flooded roads.

Long Term

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

By the time Sunday night rolls around, strong surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and deepening surface troughing over the northern Caribbean will create a tightening pressure gradient across the Florida coastline. As a result, winds will continue to strengthen into Monday and Tuesday. Sustained winds over the waters will already be howling at 30 mph starting on Sunday, but the strongest overall winds inland look to be moreso on Monday. Some areas will be flirting with Wind Advisory criteria, with gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible. There is pretty high confidence that winds will at least reach 25 mph for many locations, but probabilities for winds greater than 30 mph area only around 30%. Nevertheless, these conditions have the potential to break weak tree branches and blow around loose objects and debris.

Strong winds and high surf will combine with the highest King Tides of the year early next week. This will result in the potential for moderate and major tidal flooding. This tidal flooding may also be exacerbated by coastal showers and rainfall, which could lead to significant water rises along the far eastern metro areas. While the peak tides will be during the beginning of the week, moderate coastal flooding may persist through the end of the week as we come out of this full moon phase.

Deeper moisture, with increased precipitable water of around 1.6 to 1.8 inches, will persist over South Florida through at least Tuesday. This will keep the potential of scattered showers and storms moving along the eastern half of South Florida. A few localized stronger storms and coastal convergence may create some minor urban flooding concerns. However, the threat of rainfall will generally be on the downtrend after Monday as the mid-level troughing pattern finally ejects out into the Atlantic. Ridging from the Gulf and drier air from the north will begin to exert more influence over Florida for the middle to end of the week. This will likely result in decreasing coverage of showers and storms areawide. But with persistent northeast flow continuing, pesky onshore showers from the Gulf Stream will continue to be a nuisance each day through the end of the week.

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