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Revised in 4 passages since the 1:31 PM discussion. See every revision.
Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the interior and east coast metro areas through the early evening hours. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the interior and east coast metro areas along sea breeze boundary collisions as well as additional thunderstorm outflow boundary collisions through early this evening. The atmospheric column remains unstable across the interior and east coast as SB storm energy values range from 4500-5000 J/kg across these areas this afternoon. With DCAPE values ranging between 1000 and 1200 J/kg, this will be supportive of the stronger thunderstorms having the potential to produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph this afternoon into early this evening. As the evening progresses and daily heating begins to wane, shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish across most areas during this time frame. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the coast.
(Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today's setup, a rinse and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers.
Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier SAL air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface. This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to become strong to severe. precipitable water will still be over 1.5", so some scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just not as widespread as days without a SAL presence.
High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where indices could be up to the 105-110F range.
(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper level shortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week, which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to this feature.
High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros.
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