Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 7 passages since the 2:00 AM discussion. See every revision.
The Frost Advisory expired. Coastal Flood Advisories were issued for Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, and King George Counties through this afternoon's high tide. Minimal changes are needed to the forecast, but will be evaluating the extent of frost/freeze products needed for tonight.
1) Frost or freezing temperatures are possible in many areas tonight and Sunday night.
2) Dry weather continues through next week along with generally seasonable temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 1. Frost or freezing temperatures are possible in many areas tonight and Sunday night.
With a large area of Canadian high pressure building overhead through the weekend, conditions are favorable for radiational cooling (light to calm winds, mainly clear skies and a cool background airmass). At the moment, it is unclear which night will be the coldest, although tonight (Saturday night) will have a slight advantage given the position of the high overhead.
The growing season for 2026 has ended along and west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains, but continues east of there. Any headlines for frost/freeze conditions will only be issued where the growing season remains active.
For tonight, more widespread cold (possible frost/freeze) conditions are possible as high pressure settles more directly overhead. This would bring the frost/freeze threat for most areas outside the major urban centers (downtown DC/Baltimore) and immediate shore of the Chesapeake Bay. If the colder guidance verifies, then the growing season may end for more areas west of I-95 come early Sunday morning. The high will remain overhead through Monday morning, and while the low-level airmass doesn't change appreciably, temperatures will start warming aloft. Therefore frost/freeze coverage may be more limited Sunday night, but still a risk in low lying areas.
Did not make appreciable changes to the previous min temperature forecasts, which are near or below the coldest guidance which performs best in radiational cooling (model output statistics, the blend-of-models forecast 10 percentile and Canadian Regional).
KEY MESSAGE 2. Dry weather continues through next week along with generally seasonable temperatures.
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub