Jackson MS (JAN) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

Messages

Elevated fire danger concerns will persist through early next week due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity each day.

Discussion

The forecast continues to be very straight-forward through the next week, and confidence is therefore high in the forecast details. Global model ensembles agree that an anomalously warm upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley region as we go through this weekend and into next week. This will lead to a continuation of dry weather with large daily temperature ranges of near 40 deg F.

Of greatest importance, the continued drying of vegetation (Extreme KBDI values > 700) combined with exceptionally low daytime humidity values (< 25%) will help to maintain an elevated fire danger threat. We will continue to message this through the graphics and fire danger statement. Given the anticyclonic low level flow, light wind will help to limit the overall fire danger threat levels.

Otherwise, rainfall is not expected until the end of next week at the earliest, when the ridge shows signs of breaking down, and when the subtropical stream influence increases over our region. Even then, global ensembles show the greater rainfall signal centered more to our west, so confidence is not great for drought relief anytime soon.

Looking well ahead, all interests should monitor for increased fire danger threats in strong southerly flow ahead of cold fronts. /EC/