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Jackson MS (JAN) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Jackson MS (JAN) · issued Sunday, August 23 at 12:47 PM CDT.

Revised in 9 passages since the 6:36 AM discussion. See every revision.

Messages

Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days.

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across mainly southern portions of the area today through Tuesday.

Discussion

Hot/humid conditions will be ongoing through the afternoon. Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over western/southern areas where heat indices reach 110 degrees are expected. Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8pm. A weak, frontal boundary will provide the next storm chances along the HWY 84 corridor through the evening hours. A "Marginal" (1/5) risk for severe weather with damaging winds as the primary hazard.

As the boundary progress southward, a round of elevated convection will bring Monday pre-dawn rain chances to the Delta and central MS. Afternoon temperatures will briefly "cool" temperatures to the low/mid 90s with heat indices near 105. "Although temperatures will be in the low/mid 90s, a "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress is expected. An additional "Slight" (2/5) risk for severe weather is expected for Monday and "Marginal" (1/5) risk Tuesday afternoon/evening thanks to incoming weak disturbances. The risk area will gradually move northward towards the 1-20 corridor by Tuesday.

High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result, northwest flow across the area will allow the disturbances to increase afternoon rain chances through the end of the week. Although rain chances will be present, heat will still be a concern through the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/

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