Grand Forks (FGF) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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Gusty winds to 50 mph in Devils Lake basin this morning. Wind Advisory in effect.

Discussion

Gusty southeast winds 30-40 mph within the Red River Valley will gradually decrease some after sunset. However, winds do stay elevated overnight, but not as strong as this afternoon. Temperatures also stay quite mild in the upper 50s into the 60s overnight, well above average for this time of year. This is a result of a deepening low pressure system in the northern High Plains.

This is also driving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue to migrate north and northeast, with relatively highest chance for lightning activity in the northern Red River Valley into northwest MN. Very little rain amounts will result from this, with those that see thunderstorms seeing at most half an inch.

As the low pressure system deepens, it propagates into south- central Canada, bringing with it a sweeping cold front still expected to move west to east late overnight tonight into Saturday morning. Behind the front will be shifting and increasing winds out of the west. Confidence has increased enough to issue a Wind Advisory for winds sustained near 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph in the Devils Lake basin of northeast ND Saturday morning. Similarly strengthen winds may also bleed into the far western edge of the Red River Valley. Winds are forecast to gradually decrease starting early afternoon Saturday.

Temperatures for Saturday will follow a non-daily curve, with daily maximum temperatures likely to occur during predawn hours Saturday ahead of the front. With the front moving through Saturday morning, temperatures in the afternoon will be either steady or falling.

By Saturday evening, temperatures turn seasonable with freezing temperatures expected area wide Saturday night/Sunday morning, as well as during the overnight/early morning periods throughout next week, perhaps thereafter as well.

Ensemble guidance still shows potential for a hybrid-type, progressive low pressure system to move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest next week around early to mid next week. Confidence remains low in more refined details due to continued disagreement in modeled guidance regarding whether or not sufficient forcing for ascent will spread into our region. At this time, light snow looks unlikely, but cannot be completely ruled out should forcing for ascent move through overnight.