Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 16 passages since the 5:22 AM discussion. See every revision.
Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records.
Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today and Monday. Dry elsewhere.
Chances for thunderstorms will improve Thursday into next weekend.
Another multi-day break in the monsoon is underway. 18Z RAOBS place the subtropical high right in between ABQ and EPZ, with both recording 500mb heights of 5980m. Additional horrid stats from EPZ include a temperature of -4C at 500mb (in the middle of a sharp inversion, and a precipitable water of 0.84 inches.
Meanwhile, at the surface, dewpoints have mixed out into the mid-30s across much of the lowlands, including LRU, ALM, and DNA.
the high-res rapid-refresh model still holds out hope for a few isolated convective showers with maybe some thunder over the Gila or Sacramento Mountains, and radar shows a few minimal blips west of the Black Range. But coverage will be very minimal.
Temperatures should still top out around 101-103 at ELP, with similar temperatures tomorrow. Ensembles suggest we'll peak on Tuesday with a high around 104-106.
Record highs for ELP the next few days rise slowly with the forecast, but are still within range.
Sun 23 - 103 (2024) // forecast 102 Mon 24 - 102 (1993) // forecast 102 Tue 25 - 104 (2002) // forecast 104 Wed 26 - 106 (2019) // forecast 103 Thu 27 - 103 (2019) // forecast 102
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