Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 3 passages since the 3:18 AM discussion. See every revision.
Dry and seasonally warm conditions continue through the weekend and into next week. Temperatures fluctuate some during the week, with more notable cooling likely by late week.
Precipitation chances continue to trend drier (<20 percent) Monday/Tuesday. Additional chances (15-30 percent) at times Wednesday/Thursday, but best chances (>35-40 percent) may hold off until Friday/next weekend.
Overall quiet and seasonably warm conditions will continue through the weekend and into next week, albeit with some temperature regression at times as we work through the new work week. Precipitation chances early-mid week continue to trend down/dry, pushing best widespread precipitation chances into next weekend when the large scale pattern looks to become more active and favorable through the region.
Currently, not much notable change in conditions vs 24 hours ago over the immediate area. The mid-level/500mb ridge has shifted subtly eastward, its axis now centered over the area and up into the western Great Lakes, resulting in a general uptick in, but still largely scattered, mid-upper level cloud cover. Through the weekend, central CONUS ridge will begin to de-amplify in response to northern stream shortwave activity and continue to gradually shift eastward with the approach of cut-off low currently over the California- Mexico border (seen nicely on WV imagery). Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in strong agreement in the overall progression of these features, which will eventually result in a surface boundary draped over portions of the central to northern Plains, but north of the forecast area. Overall this leaves the immediate area remaining under the influence of the mid-level ridge and the western reaches of the large eastern CONUS surface high. All to say, expect more of the same quiet, dry, and seasonally warm conditions. Highs predominantly in the upper 70s to low 80s and southerly prevailing winds.
Aforementioned mid-level cut-off low will move through the Intermountain West and become an open wave by Monday, and continue to break down the mid-level ridge. Model trends continue to push the best lift and surface features W and NW of the area, resulting in the continued drying trend for chance of rain originally over NE Kansas and NW Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening. This also will continue the seasonally warm conditions, albeit likely a couple degrees cooler with an uptick in cloud cover for at least western portions of the forecast area. By Tuesday, mid-level pattern becomes more southwesterly over the region but tends to lack any significant shortwaves or low- level moisture return until latter portions of the week. A depicted shortwave Tuesday is most poised to result in increasing cloud cover and highs falling into the lower 70s before rebounding some Wednesday and Thursday. By this point, ensemble guidance begins to diverge more notably, attempting to resolve surface boundary location and any subsequent precipitation potential. This is readily noted via the blend-of-models forecast 25th/75th MaxT spreads jumping from only 3-4 deg F on Wednesday to 9-12 deg F Thursday. Meteograms suggest that even if the boundary finds itself over the area, precipitation amounts would be light. The best chances for appreciable and widespread precipitation continues to get pushed back toward next weekend.
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub