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The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night through Tuesday.

Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front.

Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next week.

Discussion

Gorgeous conditions across the Northland this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Surface high pressure starts to shift to the east tonight with another dose of cool temperatures expected. Low temperatures tonight will dip back into the 40s with our colder spots likely falling into the upper 30s again.

Surface high pressure will have been shunted off to the east with southerly warm air advection moving back into the Northland. High temperatures will increase a couple degrees from the previous day with some isolated spots seeing low 80s. Precipitation chances increase late Monday and into Tuesday as a Low pressure system moves across Canada. Some of the CAMs are quite bullish with the onset of precipitation initially in the early evening hours as a weak shortwave rounds the upper level ridge in place ahead of the approaching system. For now, we have limited chance of rain to 15% as soundings still look fairly dry during this time period and the strength of the available forcing does not look overly strong with height rises still in play aloft. Better forcing for ascent arrives later into the night as the system moves across the Northern Plains with a cold front sliding into the Red River Valley. The warm sector ahead of the cold front in our forecast area will be able to generate some instability with MUCAPE projected to be around 1000 J/kg. Bulk shear is pretty minimal through Tuesday morning and mid level lapse rates are not overly favorable so current thinking is that any storms that do fire off will remain sub severe producing small hail. The strongest storms look to remain to the west at this time where SPC has a marginal risk outlined. However, this could shift east into our region. Right now the the high-res rapid-refresh model is the most aggressive of the CAMs with a linear complex marching across northern MN in the morning hours. Still have a healthy amount of skepticism in this scenario with mean wind flow not overly strong and no sustainable boundary present in the models during that timeframe.

Lingering showers and storms in the morning are possible, especially across northern MN. Another round of showers and storms are expected to develop in the afternoon as the low pressure and associated frontal boundaries cross the Northland. Instability recovery from the morning activity will have to be monitored but the current expectation is for the region to see MUCAPE bounce back to over 1000 J/kg as surface temperates heat up into the upper 70s and 80s. Bulk shear will also see a slight uptick as mid level flow increases with a small jet streak rounding the base of the trough. With these ingredients in play we could see some isolated severe storms capable of producing 1" hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) outlined for most of our region except near the Brainerd Lakes area. Best timing for severe storms to initiate still looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours.

Low pressure will be sliding into the Great Lakes on Wednesday with some lingering showers and storms possible through the day. Any storms that do manage to form would likely not be severe as the mid level flow will be weaker and not capable of sustaining strong updrafts. Northerly flow will stream back into the region with highs back in the 70s through the end of the work week. The upper level pattern maintains northwest flow with the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance keeping activity out of the region as surface high pressure expands across Manitoba and through the Upper Midwest.