Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 4 passages since the 12:36 PM discussion. See every revision.
Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with strong wind gusts 55-65 mph the main threat. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible.
Drier with seasonal temperatures next week with just an occasional chance of precipitation.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches has been issued for south central and southeast MT into this evening. The forecast remains on track. STP
A filling upper low tracking through the Pac NW will continue to slide east along the US Canada border, working to break down the upper ridge over the region today into Monday. An associated cold front will sweep through the area late this afternoon and evening. Areas generally west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, with humidity down near 20 percent.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to form out ahead of and with the front, starting over the west early this afternoon, spreading east into the evening hours. storm energy values of 500-1000 J/kg, 30-40kts of 0-6KM shear, and steep lapse rates should allow a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Risk Level 2 of 5 for severe storms over central and western areas, with a marginal risk elsewhere. The main threat with these storms is the potential for wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and hail greater than 1 inch. Brief heavy rain is also possible with thunderstorms.
Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions settle into the area for Monday, with temperatures down into the 80s for most locations. Breezy northwest winds of 15-30 mph near the Dakotas border and afternoon humidity down into the upper teens and 20s percent will bring locally elevated fire weather concerns. Upper level ridging then builds in by Tuesday, but weak energy and slightly above normal moisture (precipitable water around 110-140% of normal) will allow for periodic chances (10-40% chance) for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end of the work week. Highs are forecast to range from the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast into the second half of the week with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. STP
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