Plaincast

What the forecast actually says

Plaincast — the National Weather Service forecast, decoded into plain English

What is an Area Forecast Discussion?

Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.

Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Tampa Bay, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Tampa Bay (TBW) · issued Sunday, August 23 at 2:50 PM EDT.

Messages

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf during the late night and early morning hours will move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours through Tuesday.

Light southerly flow sets up during midweek with a more typical summertime pattern of scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.

Discussion

High pressure ridge will remain across south Florida through Tuesday with the southwesterly flow continuing across the area. There will be enough moisture to allow isolated to scattered late night and early morning showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf to develop and move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours. During midweek the ridge axis drifts north across the region with a light southerly flow setting up. Deeper moisture will return with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected Wednesday through Friday. Next weekend the ridge axis is expected to be north of the forecast area allowing for a more typical easterly flow to become established and with plenty of moisture we should continue to see scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the week.

This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Tampa Bay discussion at /o/TBW/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.