Messages
Dry conditions with more comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and especially Thursday.
Plaincast — the National Weather Service forecast, decoded into plain English
What is an Area Forecast Discussion?
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Morristown, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.
Discussion
Upper troughing will remain over the eastern US for the next few days as surface high pressure to our north and northwest drifts slowly east. This will provide us with a dry days and comfortably low relative humidity values each afternoon through Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop in the late night hours tonight especially near rivers and lakes.
By mid week the surface high will be off to our east and northeast, allowing low level flow to become more southwesterly and moisture to increase. Models suggest short wave energy moving across the area may have enough moisture to work with for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially south and mountains. By Thursday into Thursday night, models show a stronger upper wave moving through the Great Lakes Region, dragging a weak cold front into our area. This will likely be the day with the highest coverage of showers and storms. We will have to wait until we get closer to see about the potential for any strong to severe storms, but right now the ensemble data joint probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of storm energy and > 30kt bulk shear are minimal at best and the chance for severe storms looks quite low.
Lower confidence in the details further out, but models generally suggest high pressure will bring at least some drying behind the front for Friday into the weekend. The the blend-of-models forecast still has some low chances for showers and storms for these days, especially over the mountains during the afternoon hours.
High temperatures will generally not be far either side of normal for the entire forecast period.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Morristown discussion at /o/MRX/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.