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What is an Area Forecast Discussion?

Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.

Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Denver, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Denver (BOU) · issued Sunday, August 23 at 12:53 PM MDT.

Messages

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

Slightly cooler with near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through next weekend.

Discussion

The flow aloft will be mainly WNW this afternoon through tonight with PW values 100 to 150 percent above normal. Don't really see anything aloft to enhance thunderstorms development, so will see another round of sct showers and storms across the forecast area. Overall, expect mostly outflow dominant storms with gusty winds and possibly some marginal large hail over the plains. DCAPE values are mainly at or below 1000 j/kg but a few storms may still produce brief wind gusts from 55 to 65 mph.

On Mon, the flow aloft will remain WNW with some decrease in moisture as PW values drop to 100 to 125 percent above normal. As a result, may see less activity Mon afternoon and evening. DCAPE values are forecast to rise to 1000 to 1500 j/kg, so there will be some potential for gusty outflow winds from the activity. Highs will be in the upper 80's to mid 90's.

For Tue, the flow aloft will be slightly stronger from the WNW as a weak cool front moves into nern CO. As a result, will see temperatures drop back to more seasonal levels with an increase in low level moisture across nern CO. Will see a better chance of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain by afternoon. Across the plains, initial thunderstorms development may focus over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide by mid to late afternoon and then track across the plains by Tue evening. MLCAPE will range from 1000-1500 j/kg with favorable shear. Thus would expect a few svr storms across the plains.

On Wed, the flow aloft will become more NWLY. MLCAPE will range from 1000-1500 j/kg, across nern CO, with the higher values over the I-25 Corridor. With favorable shear, should see a few svr storms by mid to afternoon along portions of the I-25 Corridor which will move across the plains during the early evening hours. Over the higher terrain will see sct showers and storms. Highs on Wed, will stay in the 80's across the plains.

Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, the upper level ridge will extend from the southern Rockies into the swrn US. As a result, this will leave the area in WNW flow on Thu becoming more westerly by Fri. Current data shows some decrease in moisture both days, however, still expect sct showers and storms over the higher terrain with widely sct activity across the plains. Highs will be near seasonal levels on Thu and then back to above normal by Fri.

By next weekend, the flow aloft will become more WSW. Will still see some influx of monsoon moisture with widely sct showers and thunderstorms possible both days. Highs will remain above normal.

This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Denver discussion at /o/BOU/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.